(cross-posted from cnu.org)
According to Joel Kotkin, this month’s elections were really about the “progressives’ war on suburbia.” According to Kotkin, the Democrats lost because they are “aggressively anti-suburban.” Since I didn’t vote for President Obama, I leave it to his supporters to defend him.
However, I do think it is worth pointing out that cities and suburbs moved in the same direction this year. The Republicans gained several governorships this year (Arkansas, Illinois, Maryland, and Massachusetts). I couldn’t find city election statistics for Arkansas, but I was able to find city board of elections statistics for the other three states. In each, the Republican candidates for governor improved on their 2010 showing. In Massachusetts, Republican Charlie Baker gained 30 percent of the Boston city vote, up from 23 percent in 2010. This 7 point gain was equal to his 6.5 point statewide gain (from 42 to 48.5 percent) and exceeded his 4 point gain in suburban Middlesex County.
In Illinois, the Republican vote share increased from 17 to 20 percent. Kotkin asserts that this is a “laughably pathetic” vote share, but in fact the Republicans gained almost as much in Chicago as they did statewide. They gained 3 percentage points in Chicago, and almost 5 points statewide (from 46% to 50.8%). (To be fair, the Republican gained a little more in the Chicago suburbs, but that may reflect the fact that he is from suburban Chicago while 2010 nominee Bill Brady is from downstate).
In Maryland, the Republican vote share in Baltimore city increased from 16 percent to 22 percent, a 6 point shift, more than the vote shift in Prince George’s County near Washington (4 points) and almost as much as the 7-point vote shift in Montgomery County. (However, the Republican gained more votes in the Baltimore suburbs, which by Kotkin’s logic means that they must have revolted against a “progressive war on Baltimore.”)
In sum, Republican candidates gained votes in suburbia- but they gained votes in cities as well, often in roughly equal proportions.
There may have been an increase in the percentage of urban voters who voted for Republicans but this was the lowest voter turn out since 1942. So did they really get an increase in urban voters or just an increased percentage of a really small pie?
Great analysis! You’re correct that this election did not show any significant change in the parties’ geographical bases. I cited you in my post at America magazine, in which I argue that it’s smaller cities, not suburbs, where the Democrats need to regain votes: http://americamagazine.org/content/unconventional-wisdom/do-democrats-have-suburban-problem
In response to Mr. De Blasi’s excellent question: the Republican ticket actually gained votes in all 3 states. In Illinois, Rauner got 135,341 votes in Chicago (up from the 2010 nominee’s 120,110). Baker got 47,584 votes in Boston (up from his 37,443 total in 2010). And Hogan got 30,845 votes in Baltimore (up from Bob Ehrlich’s 26,073 in 2010).